Thanksgiving Week Insights: Sales Patterns Return Amid Rising Challenges
Restaurant sales growth was strong during the week of Thanksgiving. Same-store sales grew by 6.2% from the comparable week in 2019. The results for the preceding week were much stronger. Still, these strong results are largely fueled by the unusually high growth in average guest checks.
To eliminate the distorting effect of rising checks, analyzing only November’s results this year is much more telling in terms of the health of holiday spending. The data showed that the regular spending patterns across segments have returned, as consumers strive to enjoy the holiday season after the disruption caused by the pandemic last year.
As was the case in 2019, both the family dining and fine dining segments experienced a percentage jump in the double-digits in their average weekly sales during the week of Thanksgiving compared to the average for the first three weeks in November. Meanwhile, casual dining and quick service experienced a double-digit decline in their average weekly sales that week, the same as they did in 2019. Both segments experienced a smaller decline in sales during the week than they did two years ago. The only notable exception was fast casual, which typically has big declines in average sales during the holiday week but had flat sales compared to previous weeks this year.
Holidays create additional challenges to execution and Thanksgiving brought additional challenges due to the staffing shortage. Guest sentiment eroded in key areas for segments that usually experience the biggest incremental sales during the holiday week. The fine dining segment posted almost 20% more in sales while experiencing the biggest decline in ‘food’ sentiment during the week. ‘Service’ and ‘ambiance’ guest sentiment dropped the most in family dining, driven exclusively by a decline in the percentage of positive mentions on those topics.
For the quick service segment, average sales usually drop considerably during Thanksgiving week. Despite the decrease in sales, the segment’s net sentiment for ‘food’, ‘service’, and ‘ambiance’ fell sharply compared to the previous week. In this case, pressures from decreased staffing and guest orders could be to blame.
Top DMAs
- Food- Orlando, FL
- Service- Orlando, FL
- Intent to Return- Orlando, FL
- Beverage- Orlando, FL
- Ambiance- Orlando, FL
- Value- Orlando, FL
Bottom DMAs
- Food- Washington, DC
- Service- San Francisco, CA
- Intent to Return- Raleigh, NC
- Beverage- Charlotte, NC
- Ambiance- Raleigh, NC
- Value- Raleigh, NC
For the first time in years, out of the top 25 markets in the country, Orlando, Florida dominated all attributes of the restaurant experience. Guests in Orlando had the most positive net sentiment based on restaurant ‘food’, ‘beverage’, ‘service’, ‘ambiance’, and ‘value’ during November. They also expressed the highest ‘intent on return’ sentiment.
Behind Orlando, other markets with the highest ‘food’ sentiment were New York, Philadelphia, and Tampa. New York was also the market with the 2nd highest service sentiment, again followed by Tampa and Philadelphia.
On the other hand, guests in North Carolina were the least positive about their restaurant experiences during November. Raleigh had the lowest net sentiment based on restaurant ‘ambiance’, ‘value’, and ‘intent on return’. Guests in Charlotte expressed the lowest sentiment based on restaurant ‘beverages’.